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Bitcoin Price Prediction

11/1/2020

A late 2020 analysis of the current Bitcoin price. Predictions looking at 2021 and beyond. We look at the CME gap, the charges against CME and the impact of COVID-19. We also look at predictions by some noteworthy names in the Bitcoin- and financial space.

CME gap

At the time of writing this article the price is $10535 USD following a rejection of the 11k level and with the looming possibility of a retracement to the $9700 CME gap.

The CME gap occurs when the Bitcoin markets move significantly while the CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Bitcoin Futures market is closed; this leads to a gap on the price chart once the CME Bitcoin Futures is open again. The belief is that the Bitcoin price will eventually retrace back to that specific gap level to fill the CME gap and then continue the trend to the upside. Although it is not a widely accepted theory, it is still very popular in the Bitcoin derivatives exchange’s chat rooms and social networks like reddit and bitcointalk. 

Bitmex indicted by the CFTC

Meanwhile Bitmex, the biggest bitcoin derivatives exchange, is charged by the CFTC for operating illegally in the US. Bitmex was well known for the massive wicks in their Bitcoin price resulting in hundreds of millions of USD in liquidations. However the charges are not related to market manipulation but to the lack of KYC instead. Bitmex initially didn’t require any sort of KYC for signing up, trading or the withdrawing of the proceeds, which is why these charges are not a complete surprise for the crypto space. Furthermore, such legal procedure stands as a warning for all the crypto trading and gambling providers that have not been compliant since their launch.

COVID-19

The worldwide COVID-19 infections are about to pass the 35 million mark and national debt is rising. National debt exceeds 27 trillion USD in the USA followed by 12 trillion USD in Japan and single digit trillions in debt for the world’s largest economies. The asymmetric V-shape economic recovery seems to be a fable believed mostly by politicians and central bankers, while there is a rising concern for hyperinflation, bailouts and debt socialization among financially literate individuals. 

This is the ideal context for an increased adoption of hedge assets such as gold $1904, bitcoin, stocks and apparently real estate; although the latter's increased interest might be more closely related to people longing for a better place to work from home or pass the next confinement. 

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Price predictions

Davinci Jeremie - 1.2 Million USD by 2021-2022

For over a decade, this Software developer and Youtuber has been producing free financial education content. Through his Davincij15 Youtube channel he called for everyone to get in on Bitcoin in 2011 and to move funds out of MT.Gox around 6 months before its implosion in 2014. Earlier this year Davinci predicted Bitcoin will go to $1.2 million by the end of 2021 and a recent tweet in September predicts it might take another 16 months to reach that price by early 2022.

PlanB100trillionUSD - $100,000 by 2020 and 1 Million USD by 2024+

According to his website PlanB@trillionUSD is a Dutch institutional investor managing a multi billion dollar balance sheet. While there isn’t much information about his real identity, the name PlanB stands for an alternative plan to quantitative easing, negative interest rates and currency debasement. Through a Stock to Flow valuation model PlanB predicts Bitcoin at $100,000 by late 2020 and 1 million by 2024 after the next halving. 

*stock-to-flow ratio is a way of measuring the scarcity of a commodity by dividing the existing supply by the annual production. Fidelity Digital Assets also validated the Stock to Flow model that predicts Bitcoin at 1 million USD

Max Keiser - $400,000

The host of The Keiser Report reported back in August that we would not see any resistance at $20,000 level until $28,000. Earlier this year he revised his all time high prediction for Bitcoin from $100,000 to $400,000.

Mike Novogratz - $20,000 by 2020

Novogratz is a former hedge fund manager and CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners. Earlier this year, in an interview with CNBC, he predicted Bitcoin would retest the $20,000 ATH level.  

John Mcafee - 1 Million USD by 2020

In 2017 the founder of McAfee predicted Bitcoin would be at $500,000 by the end of 2020, while closing at $5000 by the end of 2017. By late November when BTC was at the lower $8000 he revised his prediction to call for a $1,000,000 bitcoin by the end of 2020, going as far as betting he would eat his own penis on live TV if Bitcoin were to close under that price. Earlier this year, he resurfaced stating people believing the bet was serious should “wake up”.